investors’ unwavering interest. D-Street veterans are currently debating whether it is a realistic target for the benchmark, and if not, by when it will be.”This target, on a five-year view, now assumes trend 15% EPS growth and that a five-year average one-year forward PE multiple of 19.8x is maintained,” Wood had said earlier.
The debate raged on with Mark Mobius, Shankar Sharma and Nilesh Shah riding the bandwagon. While Sharma said he was “absolutely certain” that Sensex would hit 1 lakh, but guessing the timing is “meaningless”, Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC shied away from forecasting the market direction.
Here are some more takes from ace investor Vijay Kedia, Helios Capital’s Samir Arora and Atul Suri on where they see the Sensex in five years’ period.
Vijay Kedia
Whether the index doubles from here or not, it is a different issue. But, I expect the midcaps where I am investing, or generally in the midcap space, good stocks are likely to double or triple in the next two-three years’ time.
So far as the index is concerned, if we go by counting of 21, that is, 21,000, 42,000, 63,000, the next stop should be 84,000 in two years from now. Of course, 1,00,000 is just a destination, and there are miles to go for the market.Samir Arora
My simple thumb rule is to compound at about 13-14% and see whether 1.14 to the power of 5 into 66,000 does help it become 1 lakh or not. Plus-minus it would be there. Broadly speaking, if I look at it over any reasonably longer period, the returns have been in this range.
We feel that for a large part of the corporate sector, the normal earnings growth, once they become a little distinct, is in the range of 12%, 13%, 10%, 15%. And then some companies grow at 20%-30% for some periods of time.
Atul Suri
I have not done the maths, but yes, why not?.. It is just basic compounding. It is going to get there. Having been in the market for 30 years, I saw the Sensex at around 1000…
So, that is like what you are talking about is a 50%, 55%, 60% move. So, I would say that there is no reason why we should not get there in about four to five years.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
