Also add the interest for the amount to be refunded till the time a customer comes back to claim his refund.
Will not work. Randomly some fund will outperform and then fees will increase and more often than not it will start under performing. Most people will invest once a fund is outperforming but generally that wont hold in future due to mean reversion. Even Naren and Prashant jain had long periods of under performance ( payed off later for Prashant Jain funds that i held). Mirae funds used to do well, but were not doing so well when i sold.
If i could chose 5 ‘best funds’ and knew that they will outperform, only then this would work. But we cannot do that – not anymore. And there is no penalty for under performance which is what we will need to balance out costs if we assume that overall the 5 funds will cancel out out performance of 1/2 funds.
Ok, so x% * profit – (100-x)% * 0 = profit only. If you are really want to prove this, give back double the money when your ‘prediction’ does not work.
A heard a rationalist from Maharashtra had offered to give decent money to someone who could prove such kind of magical things. No one took the money. He was murdered about 10 years ago …
I suspect @Madhav11 has already made a stunning prediction that your proposal will lose him lot of money. Dont forget you are dealing with a man who can see the future
For binary outcomes its always possible to make money even if you refund full amount when you are wrong
1000 people come to you. To 500 people you say modi will win, to the other 500 you say modi will lose
even if you refund the full amount to the wrong 500, you are still a winner.
There are 1000 losers and only one winner in this game
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Which ayanamsa do you use and why ?