In 2022, weeks after Russia re-invaded Ukraine, we warned of the risk to food supplies in Ukraine and beyond.1 Since then, the importance of food in this conflict has intensified, with clear lessons for the international community facing an ever more uncertain world. We draw two main lessons from these events.
The first is that the international community must make clear that it will uphold in international law, the prohibition of attacks on food supplies.2 The destruction of Mariupol, one of Ukraine’s most important ports, had immediate consequences for the country’s ability to export grain. While Russia might argue that this was secondary to its military aim to capture territory, there was little doubt that a primary aim of minelaying in the Sea of Azov was to disrupt grain exports. This gave Russia control over the gateway to the Black Sea and a diplomatic tool that could be used in “back-channel” negotiations with the United Nations and Ukraine, brokered by Turkey.3
The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) signed on 27 July 2022, created a “maritime humanitarian corridor” for safe food passage through the mines. Ukraine could earn vital income while a separate deal reduced sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer.4 But the real winners were those who depended on Europe’s breadbasket. The UN calculates that by July 2023, 32.9 million tonnes (mt) of food was shipped, half (51.4%) in the form of maize (corn), just over a quarter (27.1%) as wheat, and the rest mostly sunflower in one form or another.5
The BSGI should have lasted for three years, but depended on Russian willingness to cooperate. On 17 July 2023, Russia withdrew from the deal, making the lifting of sanctions that blocked its use of the SWIFT system for international payments a condition to rejoin.6
In practice, the Sea of Azov “safe” corridor was always problematic. Shipping firms were reluctant to accept the inevitable risks and insurance costs were high. As a consequence, increasing amounts of grain were transported westward, by-passing the Sea of Azov altogether, and entering the Black Sea via the Danube. So now, as if to confirm that food supply is being weaponised, Russia has launched attacks on storage and transit facilities in Odessa and in sites close to the Romanian border. On 2 August 2023, Reuters reported that Russia used drones to attack the port of Izmail, a Ukrainian port on the Danube, destroying large quantities of grain.7
Although these attacks are only one of the many ways that Russia has breached international law,8 the world must send a clear message that those involved will, someday, be held accountable.
The second lesson is that the international community must revisit the global food supply system.9 The many procurement failures during the covid-19 pandemic, with governments struggling to source essential supplies, should be a wake-up call. The European Union has updated its analysis of strategic dependencies, such as batteries, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but the only mention of food relates to chemicals used in agriculture.10 A recent report by Ernst and Young describes how companies operating in many sectors are increasing investment in people and technology, including artificial intelligence, to increase the resilience and sustainability of supplies.11 Yet, as the UN Food System Summit+2 (UNFSS+2) heard at the end of July 2023,12 while parts of the agri-food industry see the need for change, business-as-usual dominates supply and consumption, and politicians are reluctant to mount effective challenges to its immense power.13
Food supply has long had political elements. Since the 1960s, the United States has used grain surpluses to pursue foreign policy interests, with its Public Law 480 legitimating food deals as a political aid,14 or what the US official historian euphemistically called “humanitarian aid as diplomacy.”15 Russia’s actions have taken this to a new level. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg argues, Russia is “weaponizing hunger”16 while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has talked of a more general “weaponisation of food.”17 When 55 of the world’s poorest countries are dependent on grain exports from Ukraine (and Russia), policies to ease trade routes are not a long term solution.
The dangers are exacerbated by the many other challenges facing the world.18 2023 saw many of the measures of climate change reach unprecedented levels, raising concerns that the Earth could hit tipping points from which it will not recover.19 Once fertile land is becoming desert and rivers are running dry. Fish are dying in overheated seas20 and extreme weather events are devastating harvests, such as the floods in India that have contributed to its decision to ban exports of some forms of rice.21 Biodiversity, in effect our global insurance policy, is being lost.22 The world faces a polycrisis affecting the environment, health, and the political economy23 that could easily turn into a global catastrophe.24
A Lancet Commission described how the existing global food system has created a syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change and argues for a holistic effort to change how we do things.25 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made this even more urgent.
Footnotes
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Competing interests: MMK has worked in Russia and Ukraine for three decades and have friends and colleagues in both countries.
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Provenance and peer review: not commissioned, not peer reviewed.
References
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United Nations Joint Coordination Centre. Black Sea Grain Initiative 27 July ed. New York: United Nations’ Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre 2022.
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FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, et al. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023: Urbanization, agrifood systems transformation and healthy diets across the rural–urban continuum. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organsiation, International Fund for Agricultural Development, UN Childrens’ Fund, World Food Programme, and World Health Organisation, 2023.
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Global Risks Report WEF. 2023. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2023.
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