Needless to say, political analysts, poll pundits and data-driven prognosticators will have a busy year ahead as they decode the fortunes of some of the most powerful political parties and individuals around the world.
But before getting into the thick of things, we have collated some early predictions on how the politics of 2024 could play out. The predictions, subject to change as the contests draw near, are based on the current opinion surveys and existing political climate.
Here’s a look at the predictions for elections in 2024:
Lok Sabha elections | India
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India will be held in April-May. Narendra Modi is eyeing a third straight term in power as he seeks to become India’s third longest-serving Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Meanwhile, the opposition is racing against time to stitch together an ambitious rainbow alliance to collectively stop the BJP juggernaut. The predictions, however, heavily favour the ruling party.
A recent opinion poll by ABP-CVoter has predicted that PM Modi will retain power in 2024, winning a similar number of seats as it did in 2019. According to the survey, the BJP-led NDA would get around 295-335 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, while the opposition Congress and its INDIA allies are projected to get 165-205 seats. In 2019, BJP had won 303 seats on its own.
Similarly, according to an opinion published by The Economist, conducted by forecasting firm Good Judgment, 47% of the people feel that BJP will in 299-325 seats in the general election.
Presidential polls | US
The elections to choose possibly the most powerful individual in the world will be held in November 2024 and will perhaps be the most watched political contest in the world, especially since it already promises to be a close contest, like in 2020.
According to the latest opinon poll by Race to the WH and RealClearPolitics, GOP’s Donald Trump has a clear edge over Democrat’s Joe Biden in 2024. According to Race to the WH, Trump has a 45.1% chance of winning the elections compared to Biden’s 43.8%. RealClearPolitics says that Trump has a 46.8% chance of winning while Biden has a 44.5% chance of retaining power.
Interestingly, according to the opinion poll published on The Economist, the Democratic nominee has a 63% chance of winning the electoral and popular vote while the Republican nominee has just a 10% chance of winning the electoral and popular votes.
General election | Pakistan
In Pakistan, it will be a tough election next year with both former PMs (and bitter rivals) – Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan – desperately seeking a return to power. Sharif’s biggest challenge will be to wrest back his support base from the former cricket hero, who, despite being in jail for graft, remains popular following his ouster from the premiership in 2022. According to the opinion poll carried out by Pattan-Coalition 38 — an umbrella group comprising several civil society organisations, labour unions, and intellectuals — around 68% respondents favour PTI’s Imran Khan as their favourite leader while only 13% chose PML-N’s Sharif. A similar poll published by Gallup in June 2023 also gave Imran the edge, with 48% picking Imran compared to 23% picking Sharif.
Russian elections and Ukraine war
The Russian presidential elections are slated to be held in March 2024, with Putin eyeing a fifth term. Putin’s approval ratings have remained steadily high to boost the Russian leader ahead of his re-election run. While it may be quite clear that Putin will be retaining his grip on power in Russia and be a de-facto “President for life”, the shadow of the protracted Ukraine war will loom over his broader public image in the run up to the polls.
According to the opinion poll published in The Economist, a staggering 91% of the respondents feel that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely before October 2024. Only about 8% feel that it may happen between April and September, after the elections. The long drawn-out conflict has not only taken a toll on resources on ground, but also on Putin’s austere image.
General election | Bangladesh
The South Asian country will be the first to witness elections in 2024, with polling due in January. The Awami League under Sheikh Hasina, which has ruled the country since 2009, is eyeing yet another term in office. Interestingly, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party is boycotting the election amid allegations of democratic backsliding and doubts of legitimacy of polls, leaving voters with little choice but to re-elect Hasina. According to opinion surveys conducted earlier this year, Hasina remains a popular leader but public discontent is also growing rapidly in Bangladesh. According to a national survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), with the public’s mood on the economy and politics souring, approval for the opposition has risen from 36% in September 2019 to 63%, only seven percent behind the prime minister’s 70 percent approval rating.
But with the boycott by major opposition parties and crackdown on opponents, Hasina’s victory so far appears to be a foregone conclusion.