A proliferation of Cajun-style restaurants means that demand for seafood, including snow crab, is increasing. But the disappearance of several billion crabs isn’t just a product of high demand. So, what happened to the almost 10 billion missing snow crabs? Well, experts aren’t exactly sure. Many suspect warming waters are to blame, limiting the crabs’ food supply and leaving them vulnerable to disease. Wes Jones, the Fisheries, Research, and Development Director for the private nonprofit Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation, told Time that, according to the biologists he works with, the steep decline in snow crabs could have stemmed from a bout of mass cannibalism within the population. Still others believe the crabs might have simply walked off the continental shelf. Regardless of the cause, the supply of snow crab to restaurants across the country will be intensely curtailed in the coming months, and some experts like Luke Scalzi, an Alaskan fisherman and boat captain, believe that Alaska’s population may not return to levels appropriate for harvesting for as many as four years.
According to Bill Resk, the former president and COO of Hook & Reel, cancellation of the snow crab season in Alaska doesn’t mean that the supply will completely disappear—but snow crabs will be significantly harder to source. “There’s really only four areas where you can get snow crabs in the world,” he says. They’re typically hunted in areas off the coasts of Russia, Norway, Canada, and Alaska, but in light of the U.S. trade embargo with Russia, and the depletion of the Alaskan population, restaurant owners will likely see a sharp increase in prices as more restaurants rely on the finite supplies from Norway and Canada.
Many restaurants operate on thin margins even under the best of circumstances, and business owners like Woods are concerned about the potential price hikes for snow crab in the coming months or years. “The shortage will absolutely affect our business,” Woods says. Others in the field are wary of sudden increases in the price of snow crabs, but say that shortages and price fluctuations are par for the course when it comes to seafood. “We’ve had issues getting snow crabs several different times throughout the years,” says Cathy Wheeless, a manager at Boudreau & Thibodeau’s Cajun Cookin’, an independently owned Cajun seafood restaurant in Houma, Louisiana. “But that’s the same way it is with a lot of seafood.” Wheeless says menu staples like oysters frequently fluctuate in price due to hurricanes and other extreme weather events.
In some ways, small restaurants have an advantage over larger chains when it comes to shrinking availability and unpredictable price increases. Independent restaurants can be nimble with their menu offerings, which allows them to adapt to changing supply costs. “It’s easier for them to pivot and switch over, even on a day’s notice,” Resk says. “The bigger box chain store or restaurant chain can’t really do that overnight.” Restaurant chains are often locked into contracts with suppliers, meaning they’ll be forced to endure the price increases until contracts expire. Of course independent seafood restaurants face their own set of challenges, as developing new offerings, printing menus, and rebranding all take time and money.
Although a dearth of snow crabs is an immediate concern for many Cajun restaurant owners, the underlying environmental causes and their implications for the future aren’t lost on them either. The disappearance of billions of snow crabs in a matter of years is a harbinger of what might come for other seafood sources if climate change isn’t addressed. “It is shocking to see the effects climate change [has on] our ecosystem.” Woods says. “[Billions of crabs] have just disappeared. If that doesn’t scare you, I don’t know what would.”